Analisis Ramalan Siri Masa Hujan menggunakan Aplikasi ramalHujan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64382/mjii.v4i2.86Keywords:
ramalan hujan, analisis siri masa, perubahan iklim, SARIMAAbstract
Ramalan hujan memainkan peranan penting dalam perancangan strategik dan pengurusan risiko, terutamanya dalam menghadapi cabaran perubahan iklim dan cuaca ekstrem. Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) bagi menganalisis ramalan data hujan bulanan di stesen pengumpulan data hujan di Sungai Manggis, Selangor. Data hujan bulanan dalam tempoh Jan 1970 hingga Disember 2014 diperolehi daripada Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran digunakan sebagai asas untuk membangunkan model ramalan hujan. Proses pembangunan model melibatkan pembersihan data, penggantian nilai hilang, dan analisis pola data bermusim. Ketepatan model dinilai menggunakan Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) dan unjuran ramalan sehingga lima tahun ke hadapan digunakan untuk mengenal pasti pola hujan yang konsisten. Model ramalan yang dibangunkan ini diintegrasikan bersama aplikasi ramalHujan, yang membolehkan pengguna membuat ramalan jumlah hujan berdasarkan lokasi dan bilangan bulan yang ditentukan. Keputusan ramalan hujan divisualisasikan dalam bentuk carta interaktif untuk memudahkan analisis lebih lanjut. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahawa model SARIMA memberikan prestasi yang sangat baik dalam mengenal pasti trend bermusim, dan aplikasi ramalan yang dihasilkan membolehkan ramalan jangka masa pendek yang lebih tepat. Kajian ini memberikan sumbangan penting kepada pengurusan sumber air dan mitigasi bencana, dengan potensi aplikasi yang luas untuk perancangan dan pengurusan risiko yang lebih berkesan
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