Forecasting The Price of Research Octane Number 97 (RON97) In Malaysia: A Box-Jenkins Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64382/mjii.v4i6.106Abstract
In Malaysia, there are three types of gasoline which are Diesel, RON95 and RON97. In this study, the focus will be RON97. RON97 is one of the factors that can significantly impact Malaysia’s economy. This fuel also has many factors that influence the price of it, which in turn affect both consumer and user. Consumers, businesses, policymakers, and energy industry players in Malaysia rely on accurate RON97 price forecasts for effective budgeting, cost management, economic planning, and strategic decision-making. The volatile nature of global crude oil prices, together with the influence of taxes, refining costs, and currency exchange rates, makes RON97 price prediction a complex challenge. This study addresses the need to determine the best forecasting model for monthly fuel price of RON97 between Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The data is taken from Malaysia’s Official Open Data Portal, which consists of the price of Petroleum and Diesel in Malaysia. This data consists of monthly prices of RON97 fuel in Malaysia since January 2020 until January 2024. The ARIMA (1,1,1) model was selected as the best forecasting approach. The forecasted range of the price of RON97 generated by this model was between RM 3.37 and RM 3.62. Future research could investigate the use of external factors or seasonal components to improve model performance.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Nurul Syakinah Mohd Zaki, Noreha Mohamed Yusof
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The authors of MJII retain copyright to the content of the articles.
The content is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) 4.0 which allows content to be copied, adapted, displayed, distributed, republished, or otherwise re-used for any purpose, including for adaptation and commercial use provided the content is attributed without any restriction.
Authors Rights
The Journal grants you the following non-exclusive rights, subject to giving propoer acknowledgement to the original journal. The authors may:
(i) to reprint or reproduce the contribution, in whole or in part, in any publication of your interest.
(ii) to use material for teaching purposes; including availability of the matarial in academic course.
(iii) to post a copy of the contribution on your personal or institutional web server, provided that the server is non-commercial and there are no charges for access, and
(iv) to deposit a copy of the contribution in a non-commercial data repository maintained by an institution of which you are a member.
Author's Agreement
Author(s) guarantee the journal the following:
(i) that the contribution is their original work;
(ii) that it contains, no matter what, content that is defamatory or is otherwise unlawful or which invades rights of privacy or publicity or infringes any proprietary rights (including copyright);
(iii) that the contribution has not been published elsewhere in whole or in part and that no agreement to publish is outstanding other than this agreement. Author(s) agree to be responsible and hold the journal, its editors, staff and affiliate organizations harmless against any claims arising from or related to the breach or inaccuracy of any of the guarantees listed above.
Disclaimer
The editorial team of the MJII and the publication team of Academica Press Solutions share no responsibility regarding the views and opinions expressed by the authors.
The content published in MJII is Open Access and can be shared, adapted, reproduced, reprinted, after appropriate acknowledgment and giving due credit to the author(s) work.
